The view that the Chinese leadership was desperate to negotiate a trade deal, to avoid economic pain that could destabilize Chinese society and threaten the Chinese Communist Party’s monopoly on power, is common among China hawks in the United States. This analysis is partly accurate, but it has led many to draw false conclusions.

US consumer confidence fell to an almost five-year low in April on growing pessimism about prospects for the economy and labor market under Trump. According to Conference Board data released Tuesday,