Per Pro Football Reference, home playoff underdogs of four or more points are 10-0 vs. the spread over the last 50 years. The Patriots aren’t playing against history, obviously, but I do think the Broncos’ defense can keep it close. And Stidham will be rusty, obviously, but he can’t be worse than C.J. Stroud was last week.

The NFL Conference Championship games have intriguing storylines, with four quarterbacks who paved different pathways to these matchups: a Super Bowl winner, a backup, a bounce-back two-time Pro Bowler and an upstart MVP candidate.